Background
Myanmar, a country of estimated 56 million
people, has abundant natural resources such as oil, natural gas, timber, and
minerals. Once known as the rice bowl of the world, it was the richest country
in the region at the time it gained independence from colonial rule in 1948. Myanmar
started as a parliamentary democracy, but was beset by ethnic strife from the
start, and soon the different groups began to resist domination by the Burman,
the majority ethnic group.
Despite constitutional disputes, representative
democracy survived in Burma until the military coup of 1962 led by General Ne
Win, who held power for the next twenty-six years. Throughout this period,
there were no free elections, and freedom of expression and association were
almost entirely denied, and the economy deteriorated significantly. The
military has extensive economic interests and its members occupy top positions
in almost every government agency.
By mid-1988, food shortages and economic
discontent led to mass protests, often spearheaded by monks and students. During
the 1988 protests, Aung San Suu Kyi rose to prominence as the leader of the
main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). In 1990, the
junta held elections in which NLD garnered 82 percent of the vote despite Suu
Kyi's house arrest. The military government refused to acknowledge the results,
imprisoned many NLD politicians, forced others to flee, and continued to clamp
down on dissent, closing the country to the outside world.
The junta renamed itself the State Peace and
Development Council in November 1997 and continues under this name to the
present day. In 2007 Burma witnessed protests led by Buddhist monks. [Monks
in Myanmar have had a history of political activism dating back to colonial
times. Monks enjoy the highest moral authority in Myanmar and monasteries play
a prominent role in society, filling the gap in social services created by the
government.] This was
followed by the government drafting a new constitution and putting
it to vote in May 2008 amid the humanitarian crisis from the cyclone. According
to the junta the constitutional referendum won an overwhelming majority, but
rights groups called the vote "a fraud." 2
History of India- Myanmar relations- Importance
of Myanmar for India
India-Myanmar
relations are rooted in shared historical, ethnic, cultural and religious ties.
As the land of Lord Buddha, India is a country of pilgrimage for the people of
Myanmar. A large population of Indian origin (according to some estimates about
2.5 million) lives in Myanmar, with Chin, Kachin and Mizo tribes on both sides
of the border..8
Myanmar was part of British India from 1886 when it was annexed by the
colonial army. In 1937 it became a separately administered territory.
Nonetheless there were strong links between the national leaders of India and
Burma in their quest for freedom.
India had a close relationship with Myanmar's
people. This warmed considerably in the wake of the 1988 mass protests against
military rule when India staunchly criticized the military's repression and provided
sanctuary to democracy activists. This resulted in ordinary people looking to
India for support in their struggle for democracy.
But that support ceased
from the mid-1990s with India adopting a "pragmatic policy" towards
Myanmar. India needed to deal with whoever was in power in Myanmar and with Suu
Kyi unlikely to come to power, the Indian government needed to continue dealing
with the generals. This was in recognition of the importance of Myanmar
for India.
The importance of Myanmar to India stems from the following:
-
India
and Myanmar share a 1640km long unfenced border. North-east insurgents (NSCN,
ULFA, Manipur rebels) have been known to use this border to seek refuge in
Myanmar, therefore security cooperation is a main component of bilateral
relations. India has
signed a mutual legal assistance agreement through which Indian insurgents held
in Myanmar can be deported to India. This is the first time that Myanmar has
signed such an agreement with any country.7
-
Can
serve as transit to NE states bypassing Bangladesh. Burma has encouraged India
to build cross-border infrastructure which will allow access to NE states from
Sittwe port.
-
Can
serve as transit to ASEAN states because Myanmar is an ASEAN member by opening road
and rail links to the mainland ASEAN economies.
-
Myanmar
is a member of the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC). MGC is an initiative by six
countries – India and five ASEAN countries namely, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar,
Thailand and Vietnam – for cooperation in the fields of tourism, education,
culture, transport and communication.8
- Access to Myanmar's widely coveted energy
resources (oil and gas) and hydropower capacity.
-
Recent
reports of Myanmar's quest for the acquisition of nuclear weapons from North
Korea (with Chinese and Pakistani help), though uncorroborated, are of concern
to India as nuclear weapons in the hands of yet another military regime would
not be conducive to long-term strategic stability in South Asia.5
-
Today India has become the fourth-largest investor in Myanmar
and one of only eight countries known to regularly supply its army with lethal
weaponry. According to official statistics, Myanmar—India bilateral
trade reached $1.07 billion in 2010—11, standing as Myanmar’s fourth largest
trading partner after Thailand, Singapore and China.4
Chinese
influence in Myanmar. Myanmar has been regarded as a “client state of China".
Bilateral trade between China and Myanmar exceeds $1.5 billion and China is one
of the major suppliers of arms to the junta. China, along with Russia, has
consistently defended the government against efforts by mainly Western states
to press UN sanctions. Its growing influence is a matter of grave concern:
o China has made rapid advances into Myanmar and established close
political, military and economic relations.
o Myanmar provides China the shortest land route access to the
northern Indian Ocean. China is developing Sittwe as a commercial port on the
west coast. Additionally China is helping upgrade facilities at Coco
Island port (Coco Islands are in the Bay of Bengal and are geographically part
of the Andaman Islands archipelago). It is natural to expect/suspect that Chinese naval activity in the Bay of
Bengal will soon follow.5
o China has signed a long-term agreement with Myanmar for the
exploitation of its hydrocarbon reserves and for the transportation of oil and
gas through a 1,100 km overland pipeline from Kyaukryu port in Myanmar to the
border city of Ruili in Yunnan. This pipeline will reduce the distance by 1,200
km and make China less dependent on the Malacca Straits.
o
There
are also concerns that China has set up radars in Myanmar territory to monitor
Indian missile movements.
Thus
its very important for India to develop a strong relationship with Burma to
counter the spread of Chinese influence into the Indian subcontinent.
India’s recent engagement
with Myanmar
Although India has engaged the Burmese junta, analysts say in reality
India's benefits from cooperation with the junta have been disappointingly
small on both the economic and security fronts. The Burmese regime plays India
and China off of each other, protecting its own interests above all. But when
forced to choose, the Burmese junta invariably favors Beijing. A case in point
was the 2005 decision to award China a 30-year contract to develop the most
valuable blocks of the Shwe natural gas fields despite India putting in a
higher bid. This leaning towards China stems from the fact that, China has
supported the junta from Western criticism and will expectedly continue to do
so in the future too. 1.
On its part India
supports democracy and democratization, but believes that this has to be an
internal process. The GOI has used its influence with the generals to move
towards an inclusive society and broadbased participation in governance. The
Indian government had also persuaded the Generals to release Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi. Indian engagement with the junta has many positive outcomes too. It has created
some goodwill in the Myanmar regime for India which was evidenced from Indian
relief operations being allowed in the wake of the earthquake in March 2011. UN
Under-Secretary General was allowed entry into Burma after Indian persuasion.
The situation has changed with the 2010
elections, which put in place a nominally democratic government. This has given
India space to widen its engagement. Though the election was widely viewed as
deeply flawed, it set in motion a process of change. New political
institutions - a presidential system, two houses of parliament, 14 regional
governments and assemblies - have been created. Civil society groups, which
emerged in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, have reportedly grown in number in
recent months. Myanmar's parliamentarians and civil society activists have expressed
interest in India's "considerable experience in parliamentary democracy
and institution building".
Analysts opine that New Delhi should be clever and
use its values and role as a leader within Asia to change the regional calculus
on Burma. This means working with fellow democracies in the region such as
Indonesia, Japan and Thailand to press for political reform and improvement on
human-rights, economic and internal security issues that have external
consequences for the region.1
By broadening the scope of its engagement in
Myanmar while retaining its focus on security concerns and furthering economic
interests, India appears to be winning back lost public goodwill. New Delhi is
no doubt hoping that the people-centric projects and reaching out to the masses
will make its relationship with its eastern neighbor more sustainable.
Some projects that are under discussion or in the
pipeline:
- $120 million Kaladan
multimodal transit and transport project that India has funded and
constructed. This project will link landlocked Mizoram with Myanmar's Sittwe
port. India is already upgrading Sittwe port. 6
- an agreement for construction of an 80-kilometer
road linking Rhi in India's northeastern state of Mizoram with Riddim in
Myanmar's mountainous Chin province. The US$60 million project is expected to
improve overland trade, providing a boost to the local economies
- India pledged $10 million towards capacity
building in Myanmar- will focus on the agricultural sector, which is the
backbone of Myanmar's economy. India is setting up an agricultural research
center.
-
India
handed over 10 modern and disaster-proof rice silos to preserve grains during
natural calamities. Ministry of Agriculture will be drawing up plans on
extending cooperation to Myanmar. India has already agreed to provide $10mn for
procurement of agricultural tools, and 100 computers to help computerize land
records.
-
India
will send an ASI team to help restore the 11th century Ananda temple
in Mandalay region.
-
India
has agreed to modernize the childerns hospital in Yangon.
Burma’s growing significance
as the linking pin between South Asia and East Asia.
U Thant Myin in a new book envisages a fundamental reorientation of Asia
with the two great civilizations of India and China being woven closer together
and Burma playing the linking pin.
The Chinese were the first to recognize the great opportunity that Burma
presented and in the 1990s unveiled plans to connect its interiors to the
Indian Ocean. This realizes what has been termed a “two oceans policy” to link
China to the World- first is Pacific and
the second would be Indian Ocean. In this vision Burma becomes a new bridge to
the Bay of Bengal and the seas beyond. This
also resolves China’s “Malacca Dilemma”- China is heavily dependent on foreign oil, and
approximately 80 percent of these oil imports currently pass through the Strait
of Malacca, For Chinese strategists, the strait is a natural choke point where
future enemies could cut off foreign energy supplies. Burma provides the alternative
route needed. Chinese planners have declared that by 2016 it will
be possible to travel from Rangoon to Beijing in a day, a grand route that they
hope will one day extend to Delhi and therefrom to Europe.9
Meanwhile, India has its own ambitions. Not
left behind is the US- the Obama administration has compromised its proclaimed
promotion of human rights and democracy in its quest to counterbalance China. Some
in the opposition believe the US, too, has begun to "Look East" and
subjugated its previous commitment to promoting rights and democracy in Myanmar
to the broader strategic policy aim of counterbalancing China.
Myanmar has thus become
a new testing ground for great power competition- a Great Game. 3
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