The NDN is a network
of road, rail and air routes connecting Baltic
and Caspian ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus.
It came into being in early 2009, to enable
supplies to US forces in Afghanistan, and was developed as an alternative to the
Pakistani supply line that had become increasingly vulnerable to
ambushes. Its strategic importance increased when Pakistan blocked all supply
routes to Afghanistan following the US drone attack which killed 24 of its
soldiers in November 2011.
Despite higher transit
costs, the NDN carries close to 75 percent of all non-military items bound for
Afghanistan. In addition, more than 60 percent of Coalition Forces’ fuel needs
are transited through Central Asia.2
While the impetus behind creating new
supply lines is grounded in the military’s immediate needs, their establishment
nonetheless offers a unique opportunity for Washington to further longer-term
strategic goals. This project will help the United States take responsible
steps towards a viable Afghanistan that is economically and politically
integrated with regional and global markets. At the same time, the
project will help the United States further its interests within transit states.
1
Therefore NDN and the expanded US
presence in Afghanistan will impact the geopolitical landscape of
Eurasia. Key transit states will enjoy new leverage over Washington while
others could apply pressure indirectly. Analysts draw attention to the
authoritarian regimes (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan), terrible human rights records
(Pres. Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan), regional hostilities between the nations
(Uzbekistan and Tajikistan), instable nature of the Central Asian states
(Tajikistan’s economy relies on drug trafficking and exporting labour to Russia;
in Kyrgyztan two revolutions have toppled leaders since 2005), with whom the US
needs to now cooperate. Additionally, Moscow occasionally
uses its cooperation on Afghanistan as a bargaining chip. 5
When Pakistan blocked
all supply routes to Afghanistan, in addition to US forces, Afghan businessmen were
also widely affected. Thousands of Afghan-bound containers loaded with
commercial goods have been stranded in the port city of Karachi. Each and every
time commercial goods are grounded in Pakistan, Afghan businessmen are losing
money and Afghan consumers are paying higher prices for goods that are imported
through Pakistan. The NDN could be the alternate route for Afghan
businessmen too, however to fully utilize this network, the Afghan government
needs to sign a pact with several countries.3
