Saturday, 21 April 2012

India's Ratings across various Indeces


Ease of Doing Business Index 2012- India ranks 132 / 183 nations. This index is prepared by the World Bank

Global Competitiveness Report 2011-12: India is ranked 56 /142 countries, a drop of 5 positions since the last report. This report is published by the World Economic Forum. Switzerland tops the list this year with Singapore in second place. 

Transparency Index/ Corruption Perception Index:   India ranks 95/ 183 countries with a score of 3.1 where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 10 means that a country is perceived as very clean. The index measures the levels of perceived levels of public sector corruption. 

Economic Freedom Index 2012:  India ranks 123/184 countries. Its score is unchanged from last year, with an improvement in labor freedom offset by declining scores in five other areas including business freedom, freedom from corruption, government spending, and monetary freedom. The index was created by 'The Heritage Foundation' and Wall Street Journal. 

Legatum Prosperity Index 2010-11: India is 91/110 countries. The Prosperity Index uses a holistic definition of prosperity to include both material wealth and quality of life.

Global Hunger Index 2011: India is ranked 67 / 81 countries placed below Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Sri Lanka is at 36th, while Pakistan is at 59th position. This index is prepared by IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute).

Environmental Performance Index 2012: India was placed 122 / 132 countries. Its performance was better on protecting its forests (rank 21) and fisheries (39), and on climate change (55). Poorer ratings were given to air quality (132), agriculture (126), and water resources (122). The Index is prepared by Yale and Columbia Universities.

Human Development Index 2011: India ranked 134 /187 countries as per Human Development Report. Education has been the main driver in the improvement of the HDI score.

Gender Inequality Index 2011: India ranks 129/ 187 countries. The GII captures the loss in achievement due to gender disparities in the areas of reproductive health, empowerment, and labour force participation with values ranging from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (total inequality). The GII value of 0.617 indicates a higher degree of gender discrimination in India compared to countries like China (0.209), Pakistan (0.573), Bangladesh (0.550), Bhutan (0.495), and Sri Lanka (0.419). It is even higher than the global average 0.492.

Lewis' turning point


Arthur Lewis, an economist, developed a model (called the Lewis Model) to analyse the developmental process of an economy with respect to labour availability. 

"In his story a "capitalist" sector develops by taking labour from a non-capitalist backward "subsistence" sector. At an early stage of development, there would be available an "unlimited" supply of labour from the subsistence economy which means that the capitalist sector can expand without the need to raise wages. This results in higher returns to capital which are then reinvested in further capital accumulation. In turn, the increase in the capital stock leads the "capitalists" to expand employment by drawing further labor from the subsistence sector. Given the assumptions of the model (for example, that the profits are reinvested and that capital accumulation does not substitute for skilled labor in production), the process becomes self-sustaining and leads to modernization and economic development.

"The point at which the excess labor in the subsistence sector is fully absorbed into the modern sector, and where further capital accumulation begins to increase wages, is sometimes called the "Lewisian turning point" (or "Lewis turning point") and has recently gained wide circulation in the context of economic development in China." 1

China is said to be at this "Lewis Turning Point" where surplus labor is evaporating, pushing up wages, consumption and inflation. The 'turning point' marks the point where manufacturing competitiveness and the pace of growth begin to turn down as labor costs rise.The result may prompt manufacturers to switch to cheaper countries such as India and Vietnam. 2

FYI: Arthur Lewis was the first person of African origin to be given a Nobel Prize for a category other than 'peace'. 

Sources:

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Key Findings of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Review 2007


 Warming of the earth’s climate system is unequivocal.

 CO2 atmospheric concentration--280 ppm in 1750 rose to 379 ppm in 2005. And the average global temperature rose by 0.74 degree Celsius.

 Direct observations of changes in temperature, sea level, and snow cover in the northern hemisphere during 1961–90 indicate increased temperatures, rise in the mean sea levels, and decreasing snow cover.

 Global average sea levels rose by 1.8 mm/year over 1961–2003.

 Eleven of the twelve years—1995-2006—rank among the twelve warmest years since 1850.

 Both the hemispheres have observed a decline in the mass of mountain glaciers and snow cover. Precipitation has been found to be more variable, with increased frequency of heat waves, droughts, heavy
precipitation events, and floods.

 Projected changes in the climate indicate an increase in global temperatures in the range of 1.8°C to 4.0°C over the twenty-first century and sea level rise is projected to be between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by 2100.

Sunday, 15 April 2012

Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) measures the shipping costs for dry bulk goods and major raw materials including grain, iron ore, coal and other fossil fuels..  It is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, and has been in existence since 1744. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index takes in 23 shipping routes covering Handysize,Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers.1,3

Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved. The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates...". 1

The index's movements are closely tracked as they reflect the demand for dry commodities from industries and consumers around the world. A higher demand for ships to transport dry cargo will obviously reflect in a strong index and vice versa. In 2009,when the Baltic slipped to record lows, western economies slipped into recession and growth slowed down in emerging countries like China and India.In Feb 2012, the BDI plunged to its lowest level. Thus the BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. 1,3

Another index, the HARPEX, focuses on containers freight. It provides an insight on the transport of a much wider base of commercial goods than commodities alone.1

Note: [Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, Capesize etc are naval architecture terms for size and design of bulk carriers that can pass through various canals and straits. eg: Panamax  and New Panamax are terms for the size limits for ships traveling through the Panama Canal.] 2

Sources:
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panamax
3. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-02-06/news/31030685_1_baltic-dry-index-baltic-exchange-dry-bulk

India's Fifth Trade Policy Review (2011)


Reproduced from Economic Survey 2012, pgs 174-75.

In order to promote transparency and provide better understanding of the trade policies and practices of its members, the WTO has a mechanism for regular review of their trade policies. Depending upon its share in world trade, each member’s trade policy is reviewed by the WTO at fixed periodic intervals. India’s TPR is carried out  every four years. The TPR offers an opportunity to other WTO members to ask questions and raise concerns on different aspects of policies and practices of the country under review. The Fifth TPR of India was held on 14 and 16 September 2011 in the WTO. Before the meeting, the WTO Secretariat circulated a compilation of India’s written replies to 886 advance questions raised by 26 WTO members.

During the review, most of the members commended the resilience of the Indian economy that smoothly withstood the adverse effects of global financial crisis without taking recourse to protectionist measures.
Members appreciated India for using its trade policy to promote sustainable development and inclusive growth.  Members also noted  India’s positive engagement in Doha Round negotiations.

Summary of Issues raised and Responses given:

The Openness of India’s Trading Regime: Questions were asked about the openness of India’s trading regime. In response India pointed out that year after year, India’s imports had outpaced exports. In terms of percentage of GDP, the country’s merchandise trade deficit is one of the highest in the world. India has been autonomously reducing its tariffs over the years. The simple average most favoured nation (MFN) tariff rate declined from 15.1 per cent in 2006-7 to 12 per cent in 2010-11. Both the average agricultural and industrial average tariffs have declined over time. The tariffs on 71 per cent of India’s tariff lines are between 5 and 10 per cent.

Gap between India’s Bound and Applied Rates on Agricultural Products: Some members mentioned the large gap between India’s bound and applied rates on agricultural products. India responded that the large gap reflected India’s steady and continued autonomous tariff liberalization. During the four years since the last TPR, the tariffs on some agricultural commodities had to be adjusted in the face of high volatility in food prices. In most cases tariffs have been brought down and have stayed down. In a few instances they have been raised again but never above their original levels.

Export Incentives: Questions were asked about export promotion schemes. It was explained that India’s export promotion schemes are based on the concept of duty neutralization and providing a level playing field. These schemes are reviewed regularly.

FDI Policy: To a number of questions on FDI policy, India explained that the continuing thrust, during the period since India’s last TPR in 2007, has been on making the FDI policy more liberal and investment friendly. The FDI guidelines have been significantly rationalized, simplified, and consolidated, with the aim of providing a single policy platform for reference of foreign investors. Several new sectors, such as petroleum and natural gas and civil aviation were either opened up to foreign investment or significantly liberalized during this period. Efforts were also being made to streamline and simplify the business environment and make regulations conducive to business.

India’s IP Policies and Enforcement: On questions related to India’s IP policies, India replied that a number of initiatives have been taken to enhance IP protection and enforcement. The changes proposed in the Copyright and Trademark Acts would enhance protection to intellectual property rights (IPRs) in digital technology particularly with regard to the dissemination of protected material over digital networks. These have been supplemented by administrative as well as judicial measures to strengthen the IPR regime. The provisions on IP protection in these laws are further supplemented by border measures to prevent the import of goods involving copyright piracy and counterfeit trademarks.
Another initiative taken by Indian customs is the facility for online registration by the right holders through the web-based Automatic Recordation and Targeting for IPR Protection System.

Government Procurement: On this subject, India explained that the procurement of high tech items and high value tenders, above US$ 50,000 is generally open to international bidders. Major reforms are on the anvil for increasing coverage, improving transparency and efficiency, and better enforcement, which are triggered by domestic concerns relating to enhancing the value for money. An omnibus procurement law applicable to the entire country and to all procuring entities, including public-sector enterprises, is being deliberated upon.

Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) measures: In response to question on India’s SPS and TBT measures, India explained that specific trade concerns raised against India have been largely addressed. Regulations adopted in the past have been on the basis of scientific risk analysis.

Export Restrictions: There were some questions on India’s use of export restrictions. India responded that export restrictions have been used on some occasions for purposes of domestic supply management but these have been purely on a temporary basis. The ban on the export of rice and wheat had to be extended in 2009 due to a dislocation in production and again in 2010 due to the severest drought in the country in the last forty years. However, the export of wheat and non-basmati rice is now completely free. The export of basmati rice is and has always been free. Restrictions on cotton exports were imposed for only a brief period last year. Cotton yarn exports have been made completely free. Similarly, cotton is also freely exportable.

Other Issues: There were questions related to customs valuation, tariffs, and other charges, internal taxation, import licensing, and the use of trade remedies. In response it was pointed out that India cannot be accused of protectionist intent in its use of trade remedies. If that were the case, then the easy route of increasing the tariffs up to the bound rates could have been used; that has not been done. Anti-dumping measures are legitimate instruments against unfair trade practices. Investigations are carried out in a fair and transparent manner and subjected to strict scrutiny. As a rule India only imposes the lesser duty and not the full dumping margin as is done by some WTO members. This underscores the fact that trade remedies are not used as a protectionist tool. Despite the fact that many members, with very deep pockets, use subsidies as part of their trade policy, India has not imposed a single anti-subsidy measure. As on date, there is only one safeguard duty in force. In the wake of the economic crisis, there was a spurt in application of safeguard investigations
in 2009. A total of 14 applications were received but in nine cases, investigations were either terminated or a decision was taken not to impose any safeguard duty. Duties were imposed only in five cases and those too have since been withdrawn. Moreover, India has never taken recourse to quantitative restrictions as safeguard measures. Import licensing affects only a few restricted items primarily on grounds of protection of human, animal, and plant life and the environment. The licensing regime is open and transparent. Licences are granted on a non-discriminatory basis. The relevant regulations are all available in the public domain and the DGFT acts as the nodal agency.

India's stand on key WTO issues

Reproduced from Economic Survey 2012, Box 7.4, pp 174

Agriculture
 Substantial and effective reductions in overall trade-distorting domestic support (OTDS) of the US and EU;
 Self-designation of an appropriate number of special products (SP for which developing countries are to be given extra flexibility in market access for food and livelihood security and rural development);
 An operational and effective Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM-a tool that will allow developing countries to raise tariffs temporarily to deal with import surges or price falls.);
 Simplification and capping of developed country tariffs.

Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA)
 Adequate and appropriate flexibilities for protecting economically vulnerable industries;
 Participation in sectoral initiatives only on a non-mandatory and good faith basis without prejudgment of the final outcome, with substantial special and differential treatment provisions for developing countries;
 Serious consideration of non-tariff barrier (NTB) textual proposals with wide support such as the horizontal mechanism. [Non-tariff barriers include quotas, import licensing systems, sanitary regulations, prohibitions, etc.]

Services
 Need for qualitative improvement in the revised offers especially on Modes 1(cross-border supply) and 4 (movement of natural persons);
 Appropriate disciplining of domestic regulations by developed countries.

Rules
 Tightening of disciplines on anti-dumping (deletion of zeroing clause and reiteration of the lesser duty rule). [An investigating authority usually calculates the dumping margin by getting the average of the differences between the export prices and the home market prices of the product in question. When it chooses to disregard or put a value of zero on instances when the export price is higher than the home market price, the practice is called “zeroing”. Critics claim this practice artificially inflates dumping margins.]
 Effective special and differential treatment for developing countries on fisheries subsidies.

Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS)
 Establishing a clear linkage between the TRIPS Agreement and the Convention on Bio-diversity (CBD) by incorporating specific disclosure norms for patent applications;
 Enhanced protection for geographical indications (GIs) other than wines and spirits.

Sources:
Definitions of terms from : http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/glossary_e/glossary_e.htm

FII Investment in Bonds

The government reviewed FII Investment limits in November 2011 in the context of India’s evolving macroeconomic situation and the need for enhancing capital flows and making available additional financial resources for the corporate sector:

1. FII investment limit in government securities (treasury bills and dated securities) was raised by US$5billion, raising the cap to US $ 15 billion.
2. FII investment limit in corporate bonds was raised by US$ 5billion, raising the cap to US$20 billion.

 The investment limit in long-term infrastructure corporate bonds, however, has been kept unchanged at US$ 25 billion. With this, overall limit for FII investment in corporate bonds and government securities now stands at US$ 60 billion. 1

Last time, this limit was reviewed in 2010. In September 2010 and since then, about 94% of the limit for government securities and about 91% for FII investments in corporate bonds have been used up. So, both these limits are close to exhausted. Hence, the finance ministry raised these limits after a review.  This move will help the Centre raise funds through market borrowing programme without hurting availability of money for the private sector. 2

 Sources:
1. Economic Survey 2012, pg.125
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/finance-ministry-increases-fii-investment-limit-to-3615bn_619672.html

International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) is an association of organisations that regulate the world’s securities and futures markets. Members are typically the Securities Commission or the main financial regulator from each country. The organisations role is to assist its members to promote high standards of regulation and act as a forum for national regulators to cooperate with each other and other international organisations. 3

The (IOSCO) was created in 1983, with its permanent headquarters in Madrid, Spain.  It is structured into a number of committees that meet several times per year at different locations around the world and it has a permanent secretariat based in Madrid. In 1998 IOSCO adopted a comprehensive set of "IOSCO Principles" which is recognized as the international regulatory benchmarks for all securities markets. 1

The SEBI is an Ordinary Member; BSE, NSE and MCX-SX are Affiliate Members; while Forward Markets Commission is an Associate Member of the IOSCO. 1

Mr. Tajinder Singh, an IAS officer was appointed as the Deputy Secretary General of the IOSCO Secretariat in 2009. He continues to hold that position (as on April 2012). 2

Sources: 

Friday, 13 April 2012

SARFAESI Act 2002 and the CERSAI


The Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act, 2002, allows banks and financial institutions to auction properties (residential and commercial) when borrowers fail to repay their loans. It enables banks to reduce their non-performing assets (NPAs) by adopting measures for recovery or reconstruction.  (In India, a Non-Performing Asset is broadly defined as one with interest or principal repayment installment unpaid for more than 90 days). 1,2

Currently, three legal options are available to banks for resolution of NPAs- the SARFAESI Act, Debt Recovery Tribunals and Lok Adalats. The SARFAESI Act has been the most important means for recovery of NPAs. The amount of NPAs recovered under the SARFAESI Act formed over half of the total amount of NPAs recovered in 2009-10.2

The Act provides three alternative methods for recovery of non-performing assets, namely: -
1. Securitisation: It means issue of security by raising of receipts or funds by Securitisation Companies(SCs) /Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs). A  SC/ARC may raise funds from the Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) for acquiring financial assets. The SC/ARC shall ensure that realisations of financial asset are applied towards redemption of investments.
2. Asset Reconstruction: The SCs/ARCs for the purpose of asset reconstruction should provide for any one or more of the following measures:
·  the proper management of the business of the borrower
• the sale or lease of a part or whole of the business of the borrower
• rescheduling of payment of debts payable by the borrower
• enforcement of security interest in accordance with the provisions of this Act
• settlement of dues payable by the borrower
• taking possession of secured assets in accordance with the provisions of this Act.  3  
3. Enforcement of Security without intervention of the court.

Central Registry of Securitisation Asset Reconstruction and Security Interest of India (CERSAI)
The SARFAESI Act also provided for the setting up of a central registry to to prevent frauds in loan cases involving multiple lending from different banks on the same immovable property. Thus the Central Registry of Securitization Asset Reconstruction and Security Interest of India (CERSAI), a government company licensed under section 25 of the Companies Act 1956 has been incorporated in 2011. 

With existence of central registry, it would be virtually impossible for a borrower to raise loans twice against the same property or raise loans using forged documents. In the past, there have been instances where borrowers have forged the title deed and borrowed money from multiple banks by giving duplicate documents (title deed) as security for home loan. As a result, when the borrower defaults on the loan, many banks would make claim for the same house.

The records maintained by the Central Registry will be available for search by any lender or any other person desirous of dealing with the property. 4

Sources:

Deregulation of Interest Rate on Savings Bank Deposits


"A major component of the financial sector reform process pursued by India has been deregulation of a complex structure of deposit and lending interest rates. On the deposit side, the only interest rate that remained regulated was the savings deposit interest rate. Keeping in view progressive deregulation of interest rates, in the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2010-11, the RBI proposed that a discussion paper on ‘Deregulation of Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate’ would be prepared.

"After carefully weighing the pros and cons of deregulation of savings bank deposit interest rate, effective 25 October 2011, the RBI deregulated savings bank account interest rates, wherein banks will have to keep a uniform rate of interest for savings accounts with deposits up to ` 1 lakh, while differential interest rates could be set for savings bank deposits over ` 1 lakh. The deregulation is expected to:

  1. improve the transmission of monetary policy
  2. enhance the attractiveness of savings accounts  
  3. encourage thrift behaviour in the economy by bringing the savings deposit rate in sync with the changing market conditions."


Reproduced from: Economic Survey 2012, Box 5.1, pg. 107.